Nigeria has been dethroned by Angola as the top crude producer in Africa, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
In the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report of August 2023, using direct communication, Angola produced 1,149 barrels per day in July 2023; but Nigeria supplied 1.081mbpd in July as against 1.249mbpd in June, representing a decline of 168,000 barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia in July produced 9.013mbpd; Iraq, 3.985mbpd; United Arab Emirates (UAE) 2.894mbpd; Kuwait, 2.548mbpd; Algeria, 955,000bpd among others.
But based on secondary sources, Angola produced in July, 1.170mbd; while Nigeria produced 1,255mbpd in July as against 1.295mbpd, showing a decrease of 40,000bpd.
OPEC also commented on Nigeria’s economy saying, “After Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.3% in 2022, it is forecast to decelerate in 2023. Growth in 1Q23 stood at 2.4% y-o-y, following growth of 3.6% in 4Q22, an indicator of this year’s anticipated slowdown.
“High inflation continues to burden the economy. Inflation data for June shows an ongoing acceleration, with an annual rate of 22.8% y-o-y, following 22.4% y-o-y in May and 22.2% in April and 22% in March.
“Food inflation has been a key factor in this rise, reaching 25.1% y-o-y in June, after 24.8% y-o-y in May. In the meantime, the President proclaimed a state of emergency in response to the pressing issue of food insecurity.
“A combination of factors including conflict, the impact of climate change, population pressures, and the below-average output of the agricultural sector, has exacerbated the scarcity of food resources over recent years. To assist, the government has unveiled a comprehensive financial package amounting to 500 billion Naira.
“To lower inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria lifted the key policy rate by 25 bp to 18.75% in July. “As a consequence of the ongoing challenges, May’s Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI retracted to stand at 51.7 in July, after a level of 53.2 in June was reached.”
At the global level, OPEC stated that for 2023, world oil demand is foreseen to rise by 2.4 mb/d to an average of 102.0 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s estimate.
It stated that upward revisions to the 1Q23 based on actual data received for OECD America and OECD Europe were completely offset by downward revisions to 2Q23, mainly in Europe and Other Asia.
It said, “In the OECD region, oil demand in 2023 is anticipated to rise by 74 tb/d to an average of 46.0 mb/d. OECD Americas’ demand is anticipated to have the largest regional rise in 2023, led by the US, on the back of recovering jet fuel demand and improvements in gasoline requirements. Light distillates are also projected to support demand growth this year.
“In the non-OECD region, total oil demand is anticipated to rise by nearly 2.4 mb/d, to average 56.0 mb/d in 2023. A steady increase in transportation and industrial fuel demand, supported by a recovery in activity in China and other non-OECD regions, is projected to boost demand in 2023.
“In 2024, solid global economic growth amid continued improvements in China is expected to boost the consumption of oil. World oil demand is anticipated to rise by 2.2 mb/d y-o-y, with total world oil demand projected to average 104.3 mb/d.”
It added, “In the OECD, oil demand is anticipated to rise by 0.26 mb/d, to average 46.3 mb/d. Oil demand in the US is forecast to exceed the pre-pandemic level at 20.6 mb/d, mainly due to the recovery in jet fuel requirements and improvements in gasoline and light distillates demand. OECD Europe and the OECD Asia Pacific are anticipated to remain below pre-pandemic levels at 13.5 mb/d and 7.5 mb/d, respectively, due to anticipated slower economic activity in the two regions and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks that are expected to weigh on industrial activity, particularly in OECD Europe.
“In the non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to show an increase of almost 2.0 mb/d y-o-y in 2024, to an average of 58.0 mb/d. China and India are anticipated to see the largest growth by country. Other regions, particularly the Middle East and Other Asia, are also expected to see considerable gains, supported by a positive economic outlook. In terms of fuels, jet kerosene, gasoline and diesel are assumed to lead oil demand growth next year.”
Source : New Telegraph Newspaper